This will be super short (really) since the kids are off on Spring Break.

Ebola:

Both Guinea and the DRC have released their last known patients from the hospital this week (both last patients survived). We are at 18 confirmed cases in Guinea and 12 in the DRC. 50% mortality even in both. This starts the clock on calling an end to these outbreaks. The WHO formally waits 42 days from the last known confirmed case to call an end to an Ebola outbreak. We’ll watch that timer as well. There is still a chance new cases pop up in the next couple weeks, the DRC especially where contact tracing was a little more lax. But ability to flood the zone quickly with vaccine has been the difference maker so far.

Yes, there are at least 50 people in several states in the US where those states have announced they are being monitored for Ebola after returning to the US from these countries. Their risk of actually having Ebola is not zero, but is still pretty darn low. This sounds like monitoring due to travel history rather than actual exposure to a known Ebola patient.

Coronavirus:

–On the vaccine front, the big news this week was AZ announcing a high 70% effectiveness rate in the data it is submitting to the FDA. There was an unusual announcement by the feds that some of the data looked old (from a previous data lock) and may not reflect the actual current numbers. AZ is out today saying it has corrected the data in question and the effectiveness rate remains unchanged.

So something in the 70s seems reliable.

Again, there is little purpose to being a brand snob. When you go to get your vaccine (and it seems like everyone 16 and older will be eligible across the US within the next few weeks–I know that starts next Wednesday in Indiana), any of the approved ones, administered by a medical professional and under their care and supervision in accordance with its labeled use, is better than no vaccine. They ALL push us closer to herd immunity.

–Common question lately is “I had COVID back in X. Do I still need to get the vaccine?”

Here is what the CDC has to say about that:

Yes, you should be vaccinated regardless of whether you already had COVID-19. That’s because experts do not yet know how long you are protected from getting sick again after recovering from COVID-19. Even if you have already recovered from COVID-19, it is possible—although rare—that you could be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 again. Learn more about why getting vaccinated is a safer way to build protection than getting infected.

If you were treated for COVID-19 with monoclonal antibodies or convalescent plasma, you should wait 90 days before getting a COVID-19 vaccine. Talk to your doctor if you are unsure what treatments you received or if you have more questions about getting a COVID-19 vaccine.

Experts are still learning more about how long vaccines protect against COVID-19 in real-world conditions. CDC will keep the public informed as new evidence becomes available.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/faq.html

I would say the most compelling reason for vaccination even if you have already recovered from COVID is social. There is a good chance that airlines will continue to consider vaccination status for travel. Certainly, some popular tourist destination countries will want it as well.

If you have recently, like within the last month, recovered from COVID, discuss vaccination timing with your healthcare professional. It will be a booster shot for you (in essence), and going into what is probably a very primed immune system, still flush from the antibodies and T-cell response you used to beat COVID. Discuss with your healthcare professional the likelihood of the fever, aches, pains etc. “hangover”-like side effects if you get a vaccine shortly following recovery from COVID.

Yes, I am using “healthcare professional” there a lot. Which means I am being careful with that language. Thank you for your understanding.

–US still trending down overall, but that varies. Indiana, for example, has leveled off new cases, positivity rate, and hospital admissions here recently. The mask mandate becomes mask voluntary starting April 6th, and combined with the NCAA tournaments going on, will again be a good test of how immune herd immunity really is right now.

Since going restriction free a couple weeks ago, Texas case rates have remained flat to slightly trending down. Epiforecasts.io currently projects a Ro of about 0.89. Again, less than 1 is an outbreak slowly dying. So this is a positive sign for herd immunity in the US at least.

India, South America and most of Europe are showing slight to moderate increases in cases. South Africa continues to be down (still a great sign for a low reinfection rate by the variant they identified). India, in fact, announced it will be forcing more of the AZ vaccine being produced in India to stay in India.

–Yep, that’s it this week! Short as promised (at least short for me).

–Your chances of catching Ebola this week are equivalent to the chances that your March Madness bracket survived the weekend intact.

–Your chances of catching coronavirus this week are, sticking with March Madness themes, equivalent to the chance of oh, say a 2-seed making at least the Sweet Sixteen.

Of course, your actual results may vary.

<Paladin>