Ebola:

–Super short. No new cases in either Guinea or the DRC. The last new case in Guinea was April 13th.

Coronavirus:

–Around the horn, India is still getting bombed in a big wave. Brazil is in a solid downturn off its most recent wave, and much of Europe is trending in the right direction at the moment. In the US, cases are trending down across the country. Michigan had indeed flattened off last week, and new cases there are falling precipitously. This is WITH the majority of new cases in the US shifting over to the UK variant, and again, is absolutely in line with projections from the impact of higher contagiousness variants versus vaccines the CDC published back in January.

–Two separate studies have confirmed that there is “no evidence” that the UK variant causes worse disease, or worse disease more often. As we mentioned back in the original reports, the highest probability would be for more contagious, but not necessarily more severe disease, and that probability has played out.

–South Africa cases remain very, very flat. And we are increasingly getting to the point in the virology and epidemiology where if the variant first identified in South Africa was going to blow through the vaccine, we should be hearing about it. No news there is great news.

–Speaking of vaccines, great series of charts from the Financial Times. The original is behind a paywall, but you can find the relevant graphs basically stolen by a California news website I had never heard of before here. The long and short of it is when you look at data in multiple countries (US and UK are highlighted, but Chile is there too), the age cohorts vaccinated first show a rapidly dropping contribution to hospitalizations and deaths–as you would expect if the vaccines were effective. US data shows that the vaccines are highly effective against the variant first identified in the UK as well.

–Also on the vaccine front, no idea if the J&J pause will be lifted. There is a chance that by the end of this week it could be, just with a warning to watch for the clotting side effect we discussed last week. That’s not J&J’s only problem though, as a company they bought for vaccine manufacturing ran afoul of the FDA for processes at its factory.

–In other news, area man with giant financial interest in selling something believes you should buy that something as frequently as you possibly can:

Click the image for the full story if interested.

The government was quick to trot out their spokespeople to make it clear that a third (or second, depending on manufacturer) booster shot for COVID would be a “public health decision” and not up to Pfizer and Moderna. Which is exactly right. Frankly, if they keep showing the kind of antibody persistence that they have so far, and even variants like the one first identified in South Africa fail to appreciably break through, it is hard to justify a booster vaccine.

–So “will we need a booster?” has been a popular reader question. Data leans “no” right now, but we’ll have to see. If you can imagine, my confidence in political institutions has waned over these years a bit.

–Also in vaccine news, and unsurprisingly, the first reports of counterfeit vaccines are showing up. Vials claiming to be Pfizer vaccines (and containing pretty much just water) have been found in Mexico and Poland. Fake vaccines have also been discovered in South Africa, and even Hondouras. The more popular scam in the US is fake websites seeking to steal personal information–the Federales have already seized 74 web domains.

In the US, vaccine is being purchased and distributed by the government. As long as you are following the state’s guidelines, and going to a state indicated vaccination center (which may include pharmacies), the chances you will receive a fake are incredibly small. Check with your state’s department of health (or equivalent) for vaccine information. A good resource and links to your state’s information is here.

Goes without saying that if you are buying your COVID shot off the back of a truck in Tijuana, well, I appreciate the enthusiasm, but you should definitely wait and look into more reputable options for your vaccination needs.

–Finally, updating some previous stories we have covered:

1. A giant study of 108,000 patients show NO correlation of blood type to COVID severity or likelihood of contracting. Sorry all you Type O’s out there.
2. There was much angst, consternation and TOTAL misunderstanding of PCR last fall, leading to several reader questions on articles they discovered claiming things like PCR Ct values above 35 were false positive, etc. We have also discussed how the assay is qualitative, and not really very good at being quantitative, and the key difference between sampling blood and sampling the airways (latter is what we do in COVID) makes a HUGE difference in following patients for viral load. I had no part in writing this joint statement on Ct values and their interpretation in SARS-CoV-2 evaluation issued by the Association for Molecular Pathology and the Infectious Disease Society of America. But if you’ve been reading these updates, you have heard all of that before.
3. Sucks to be influenza this year:

–In case you are wondering about the risks of unvaccinated kids and vaccinated adults as we go into summer camp season soon, current mortality data by age suggests that risks of COVID to those 17 and under are LESS than that of the flu.

–And finally, dogs have been trained in a U Penn study to sniff out COVID in humans with 96% accuracy. No, I don’t think any diagnostics manufacturers are losing sleep over this study.

–Your chances of catching Ebola this week are equivalent to the chances that the dog doing your rapid COVID screen in Tijuana before you get your “just like Pfizer’s” vaccination (and complimentary shot of tequila) was actually trained to smell COVID.

–Your chances of catching coronavirus are equivalent to the chances that I will be opening a drive through, rapid COVID testing facility staffed entirely highly trained, COVID sensing labradoodles if I can also get my night-time security at the facility provided by 100 security dachshunds.

Why dachshunds, you ask?

So when I “release the hounds”, the would-be thief is confronted a horde of security wiener dogs racing towards them, yip yipping the entire way.

Because let’s face it, if a rottweiler, pit, or german shepherd comes racing at our thief, the thief is just going to turn and run. With enough of a head start, they might even get away from a big security dog.

When confronted by 100 security wiener dogs, they pause. And that’s the important thing. They have to decide in that moment if 100 wiener dogs are really a threat. That moment, that instant, of confusion, surprise and hesitation is their undoing.

For these are security wiener dogs.

And if they haven’t started running, it’s already too late.

The only question, the only question, is “what gets the thief first?”

Swarmed under by a wave of dachshunds, washing over the thief like a school of piranha?

Or will it be the flamethrowers the dachshunds wear on their heads?

And yes, that’s your chances of catching coronavirus this week.

<Paladin>