As reminders…

Alpha–Variant first identified in the UK

Beta–Variant first identified in South Africa

Gamma–Variant first identified in Brazil

Delta–Variant first identified in India

Omicron–Variant first identified in South Africa

Also as a reminder:

Ebola:

–No new cases. It’s now been 30+ days since the last confirmed case, which is closing in on WHO’s window to call the outbreak closed. There are three suspected cases (symptoms enough to get tested for Ebola is all that means) still being monitored. There are also still missing known contacts. But we are close to the end on this outbreak, I think. New infection chains should probably have announced themselves by now.

Coronavirus:

–Starting with the obvious… We are getting some new details around omicron. This is the new variant first identified in South Africa that we sent the “events warrant” update about last Friday. First things first, yes, the WHO bypassed “Nu”, which was next in the Greek alphabet. “Nu” and “new” was a little too cutesy for them apparently. Then they skipped “Xi”, the next letter in the Greek alphabet, to “avoid association with certain geographical regions”, which is a much more polite way to say that despite the US and two US based charitable organization donating multiples of the money that China does to fund the WHO, they will still self censor in favor of the CCP.

And welcome to our new Chinese readers who are highly likely to be visiting a page linking Winnie the Pooh and Xi! Yes, willing to bet that triggers a “site scrape” algorithm or two there. Not a Chinese citizen and not a Chinese web page guys, but thanks for stopping in.

Yes, the name quibble is minor, but of a piece and disturbing trend for self-censorship, even dangerous self-censorship, in the service of the CCP, even by those who aren’t their citizens.

But it adds to the Bonfire of Institutional Credibility: https://www.epsilontheory.com/defund-the-world-health-organization/

In the meantime, omicron it is.

Again, the formal testing for vaccine resistance, monoclonal antibody resistance, and a better picture of its actual contagiousness will not be known for a few weeks at least. Oxford and BioNTech’s founder are out there stating there is no evidence that omicron will slip past the vaccines; Moderna is publicly more concerned, but in all cases, the testing isn’t in. This is absence of evidence, not evidence of absence.

Regardless, omicron is everywhere already. Multiple cases have now been identified ranging from Africa to Israel, most of Europe, Canada, Australia and China among others. On Wednesday, shocking no one reading the Events Warrant update, the US announced its inevitable first case of omicron detected, this in a fully vaccinated traveler returning from South Africa who has mild disease and is quarantining comfortably at home in San Francisco. The close contacts of this person have tested negative so far. Today, the second equally inevitable case was detected, this time by surveillance sequencing of positives in Minnesota. This patient, who seems likely to have been infectious (or infected) at an Anime conference in NYC last week, is also fully vaccinated, never left the country (meaning omicron is already spreading within the US) and has already recovered from a couple days of very mild symptoms.

Guys, one of the South African countries has retrospectively found omicron in samples from October. I guarantee you this variant is already all over the globe. Everywhere. And spreading within these countries.

Thus, South Africa was –justifiably– quite pissed that everyone and their brother was cancelling flights just because South Africa acted responsibly and notified the world of this cluster of cases with a highly mutated spike protein region. How are those travel bans shaping up (prior to the US finding its first inevitable case already)?

So to recap that in words, we’ve banned entry from a bunch of South African countries (including ones with no known cases of omicron yet), but not Hong Kong or any of the much longer list of countries with confirmed omicron cases.

Got it. Not a great look at all, but got it.

I suppose if you wanted to try to defend this idiocy, most of the cases in the Western countries are in travelers returning from South Africa. On the other hand, that’s also who they tested first–all because South Africa was all the responsible that China was not when COVID first began. What a fantastic way to punish good behavior. Regardless, I will also lay 1 US dollar that omicron is spreading beyond travelers from South Africa already in many, if not all, of those countries already listed.

It’s out.

Which means, much like banning travel too late from China in the previous administration while leaving flights from a clearly hot Italy and Spain open, these travel bans will be utterly useless in stopping global spread of omicron.

Your dial remains cranked to “maximum stupid”. You may now continue with the rest of 2021.

In related news, Pete Buttgieg’s announcement that vaccine mandates “not needed” for domestic air travel is likely to be short-lived. The US as part of its omicron response is now shifting to require negative PCR testing within a day of departure for anyone coming into the US. The CDC apparently also requested a list from the airlines of everyone who has traveled from South Africa recently to turn over to local and state health departments for contract tracing and testing.

Over the weekend, the South African officials responsible for identification and the announcement provided more detail on the clinical picture. You know–that important piece of how worked up about omicron we really need to be? Anyways, all of the cases they have seen thus far with this variant have been “extremely mild” disease consisting of a dry cough, fever and night sweats. None of the detected omicron cases in South Africa have been admitted to a hospital yet, that anyone is aware of. So that is a positive sign. Botswana also added some detail on their four cases. All four were members of a diplomatic mission that arrived in the country in early November and all four popped positive for Omicron (despite double vaccination, alas) trying to leave. None developed severe disease, sounding more like “typical” breakthrough cases. None of their close contacts developed COVID either.

On the downside, cases are rising rapidly in South Africa, which looks to be at the start of a summer cycle of COVID. At least 70% of the new cases are this variant, but that is partly because high disease activity persists where omicron was already identified. That said, at least 5 new regions have confirmed omicron cases. I think it also worth mentioning that South Africa was hammer timed early by the delta wave due to strong commercial ties to India. It is possible that delta has largely burned out, or was only at a simmer, and omicron is merely filling the gap at an opportune humidity and congregation of people time of the year for SARS-CoV-2 (of any variant) to spread well. Head to head comparison for contagiousness versus delta and how relatively severe is still very much a work in progress, and we won’t know much for sure for several weeks still. Complete, two series vaccination is only around 24.6% in South Africa.

In terms of treatment and prevention options, a Pfizer exec went on record (meaning no accident) to voice their high confidence that their vaccine will cover omicron without modification. GSK also went on record to say preliminary data shows their monoclonal antibody treatment still binds to omicron, with further testing to confirm this in petri dishes underway.

Again, the spike protein mutations MAY impact these monoclonal antibody treatments and the vaccines, but at least the early indications are positive that they still cover omicron.

As a reminder, the spike protein mutations that define omicron are NOT expected to impact the effectiveness of the Merck and Pfizer treatments (although that will likely be formally tested too).

Regardless, it doesn’t sound like South Africa or anyone in the US, thus far, has felt the need to throw these at the so far very mild disease in omicron positive patients.

–If I had to handicap the scenarios, I think the most probable is as or more contagious than delta, but less severe disease on average. That this was caught in a cluster of mild cases only because it was a cluster with a new sequencing result is an encouraging early start for severity.

–Again, the trend over time for a virus is more contagious, less severe. The spike mutation proteins that help it get around existing immunity can easily, and in fact probably, affect its ability to bind the ACE receptor and thus the full range and severity of viral infection. If it crowds out delta AND is a low severity version (the mild cold stays true for everyone or the vast majority of everyones), that’s low key a good thing, because delta can still put people in the hospital. A mild cold omicron sucking the oxygen away from delta and the other variants would relieve a lot of the lingering pressure from SARS-CoV-2.

–That said, there is a sneaky risk to the “more contagious, far less severe” omicron outcome… IF more contagious less severe is the final word on omicron though, and especially if vaccine induced antibodies and T-cell responses remain effective versus omicron, we get a new scenario. Because there are a lot of governments now, with very serious people in them, who will now look like they got treed by a chihuahua in their reactions, policies and pronouncements LONG before the data was in on how worried to really be about omicron. Perception of effectiveness is most important to politicians–and some of them will worry that they now might be perceived as crying wolf about omicron. The best case of their walk back is “we acted soberly and sensibly in preponderance of caution / better safe than sorry and we will immediately roll back with a sigh of relief.” But there is a good chance they go the other direction and double down by emphasizing rare cases of severe disease, or any hint of clusters, or “well, we can’t let this mutate any worse, so draconian policies remain needed” until the evidence is overwhelming that omicron ain’t doing it. A dangerous omicron sells clicks; a “false alarm” omicron does not sell as many clicks, so the incentive for the media will be to play along for a bit too. The political reaction will be unpredictable to the best case scenario (ironically, the playbook for the worst case is known and predictable–see 2020) and your local results may vary. Again…

–So in TL;DR summary, still no need to panic on omicron. Early clinical and lab data is good so far, and frankly, we still don’t know enough yet for sure to know how worried to be.

–Around the horn, cases continue to rise in much of Europe, although we may be starting to hit some local peaks. Cases in the US have leveled off and actually look like a bit of a drop, but I’m 99% sure that may be due to reduced testing around Thanksgiving. We’ll see how numbers look again through early next week as Thanksgiving dinner infections should be popping and testing catching up again. I’m still expecting the cold weather wave to persist, at least until the new year. If it has truly crested already, though, that is a fantastic sign. Yes, yes, omicron… but again, no reason to panic over omicron yet–even BEFORE we remember that we have effective therapies for COVID now that almost certainly still hit omicron, since they are not spike protein dependent.

–Yes, I have seen the musings about high profile collapses of professional players on the soccer pitch due to cardiovascular issues. I’m not sure what it means yet–could very well be random chance, but yes, the players are the right gender and age to be at higher risk of myocarditis and pericarditis associated with vaccination. For what it’s worth, there has been no similar increase noted in other sports that I have seen, which have similar vaccination requirements or incentives. Like college football, or pro/college basketball for example. And if it was a combination of high cardiovascular demand plus vaccine complication that was the cause, I would expect ultramarathoners to dropping like crazy, and no reports of issues there yet either. So I dunno. Check back later.

–No, I did not watch the Fauci interview. Yes, I heard about the “I represent science” comment he made.

Bonfires, my friends. Bonfires.

And if the guy who deliberately lied about masks, among other deliberate lies he later said were justified for the greater public interest is now claiming to be the avatar of science, then science has a huge problem.

I would go so far as to say a MAJOR part of vaccine hesitancy is not only politics, but the fact that senior leaders in the pandemic response (like, if not especially, Fauci) have deliberately lied about pandemic severity and effective measures before. We all have the tape, including the part where they justified those lies as necessary and in the public interest, clearly indicating they would do it again if they deem circumstances were similar. Integrity is a funny thing–one breach, and it’s gone. When they committed to the “white and necessary lie” they undermined their credibility in further recommendations, quite understandably, to a large number of people. “Do as I say and not as I do” to prevention measures among any number of public leaders across the spectrum has not restored the public confidence. So again, if Tony Fauci “represents” science, and is science, then God help science, as I very much doubt history will be kind to Tony.

–Speaking of which, socioeconomic issues…

–Greece will now be fining the elderly every month they remain unvaccinated. Germany said hold my beer, with additional restrictions and fines for its unvaccinated. Australia jailed some folks.

Given the demographics of vaccine uptake in the States, I doubt a similar policy will be enforceable here. In fact, while the administration is still beating the table for private companies to enforce mandates, more federal agencies are delaying vaccine compliance dates as it becomes obvious significant parts of their workforce will not be compliant in time. And this is a politically inopportune time for federal agencies to visibly fail to fulfill their roles, so quiet rollbacks are the lesser of bad options.

Again, there is zero indication that natural immunity from documented prior infection and/or antibody testing is being considered either, which makes the more draconian policies around the world look a little more Science!^TM driven than science driven. Best argument for Greece’s approach, for instance, is that the elderly are absolutely the group that should be getting documented antibody resistance to COVID to avoid the “bed’s taken” scenario that’s the main problem of COVID. If vaccination “encouragement” is needed, that’s one way. But I think it would make more sense to make these kinds of more obviously oppressive measures at least contingent on antibody testing to see if you actually need a vaccine or are already recovered and antibody protected naturally.

–Lumber prices are spiking again, as the flooding in Vancouver we mentioned has cut supplies of timber from western Canada (a major lumber supplier for much of the world) by 25-30%. Wholesale prices are up 30% in two weeks, and are back to June highs.

–Energy prices in Europe continue to rise, and the shock headline was one official in Italy stated that “given the current energy supply system, a blackout cannot be ruled out across Europe.” Governments are also setting aside money to try to mitigate the cost for citizens and companies alike.

Supply chain disruptions remain likely to persist. Still, so far, no cascading failures as yet.

–In the US, the Federal Trade Commission was demanding detailed data on empty shelves, supply chain bottlenecks, and how they are approaching supply/demand and justification for price hikes from inflationary pressures from major retailers running from large grocery chains up through Amazon and Walmart.

–According to Gallup this week, 45% of American households are feeling hardship from inflation, with lower income Americans predictably most affected.

–If the omicron freak out on Black Friday shows one thing, it’s how fragile the general psyche remains. Just look at all the hits our collective confidence in the world, how it works, and the chances that it will ever reach even just enough justice to be tolerable, has taken in just the last 15 years. We have gone through the global financial crisis, the Arab Spring, the ebb and flow of terrorism, wars and riots. Web 2.0 shrank the world, but polarized at the same time, and at its worst, was turned into weapons of fear, discrimination and outright violence by oppressive regimes. Brexit. Questions as to whether the United States can, or should, remain united. Violence in the streets. Riots. Looting. The end of the Pax Americana. Through it all, global leadership has been revealed from sources through the now thoroughly unreliable news to direct leaks in the Panama Papers and Wikileaks and Epstein of corruption, venality and incompetence among our leaders and institutions at truly boggling levels. Finally, a global pandemic that has only catalyzed all of these trends, and then precipitated a new global supply crisis and inflation that we are only now appreciating. Is it any wonder we see record burnout across industries, with chronic staff shortages just from the sheer fatigue of all of this? A pervasive sense, and quiet confessions, of the general anxiety we all feel? Any doubts as to why different visions are everywhere of the next great shoe to drop, the Third Act of this slow moving inevitable apocalypse that we discussed earlier?

We are like the exhausted defenders of Helm’s Deep from “Lord of the Rings”, shocked by the insane, suicidal corruption and waste of our “leaders”, fighting what seems a hopeless defense against the rising tides of evil at our gates. Vainly, it seems, we look to the hills. Did not Gandalf say to look to first light on the fifth day? Yet here is the early morning of the fifth day, and all we see in the first rays is corruption and evil bent on our destruction as far as the eye can see, as we steel ourselves to a last, desperate, apparently futile charge…

So if you are looking for the one hidden cause, the one factor that has underlined all of this accelerating global tragedy, look no further. Now, I know you will chide me that correlation is not causation, but it has been well said that whatever your cause is, it better damn well correlate.

Thus, I ask you, readers, to look at the record of Ohio State against Michigan these past 15 years, and marvel at the destruction of global society and the very pillars of our civilization that has so strongly correlated with this abomination.

Truly, my friends, do you need any more statistical proof that the world cannot abide, perhaps cannot even survive, a world where Ohio State wins The Game than that 15 year record of epic calamity? Those long 15 years wherein Michigan managed only 1 win–and that during a lost season for Ohio State as they fired yet another corrupt head coach? Such a travesty twists the very moral fabric of the world, and turns it from one of justice, peace and brotherhood to… to this wreckage we confront today.

That evil has triumphed over good for 15 years is the cause, my friends. It is the cause.

Are we doomed now? Has evil wrested the upper hand, and will the forces of darkness march triumphantly forward as we fight a hopeless rearguard against the dying of the light?

Then… this past weekend.

I know many of you saw this weekend. Many of you witnessed. But did you truly see?

Did you see the tide begin to turn, and the pendulum start to swing against the corrupt, the venal, the arrogant?

Did you see the good rally to fight the good fight?

Did you see the Rohirrihm start their ride against the tide of corruption, fear, evil and failure in our world?

Did you see the beginning of the end?

My friends, make no mistake. We are heartened and encouraged. But just as after Helm’s Deep in the movies, there was an entire third act to come, as valiant as our victorious heroes were. There is a long way to go to right the wrongs inflicted on the world these last 15 years. To restore noble and just leadership. To rebuild institutions we can trust, and that work for the world that waits for us on the other side.

The process will be long. Arduous.

But our courage will not fail. Our commitment will not fail.

For the first necessary step, however small it may seem, has begun:

Hope… springs.

–To answer your questions, Hypothetical Reader…

Yes.

Yes that was one long set up for a dig at Ohio State.

–And yes, it was totally necessary.

–And to answer your question, one of any of my several Hypothetical Buckeye Readers with any introspection, any hint of good and nobility left in you:

“The last 15 years of increasing global disaster, threatening all of civilization, really IS tightly correlated with Ohio State’s hot streak in the rivalry. Could it… could it really be? Could my support of a college football team, especially one as provably contemptible as Ohio State… could how I continue to revere Tressel and Meyer despite their confirmed and continued major moral failings… could my support of that Ohio State be -the- cause? The reason for the darkness? The reason for misery and despair around the world? Are…. are….are -we- the baddies?”

–Yes.

Yes you are, Buckeyes.

But fear not! The Big House is well named, and there is always room for more–especially former Buckeyes.

–Some quick think pieces, apropos of that short tangent into college football though.

Culture, whether local or between large geographic distances, according to the best anthropological research, is not created by what you might otherwise think. The biggest determinant of schismogenesis, creating separate cultures, is what they choose NOT to do or value. Even when it might be a better value or way. Think back to high school and middle school real quick. Whatever your clique was (and you had one), more often than not, you were defining yourselves in terms of characteristics you did NOT have versus another clique. Your choices in dress and music etc. When you (or others) were most put on blast by your own clique then, what was said? More often than not, it was an accusation that you were doing something, reading something, in a particular club, etc. that your clique simply “did not do.“

Like wear blue and maize in Ohio on a certain day of the year, or red and scarlet in Michigan on that same day, for recent example ; )

Look on twitter or other social media now at the R and D tribes. Or whatever your local equivalent might be, international readers. Odds are good that one tribe is defining its traits by websites it doesn’t read, activities they don’t do, etc. Those who stray from the tribal orthodoxy… they get the “no true Scotsman would ever…” blast don’t they? RINOs ring a bell? How about those on the left who are not true progressives or are selling out? True communism has never been tried? Choices in shows watched, movies, sports etc.–are there options among these that “no true Scotsman” in the R or D tribes don’t do? By definition of their tribe?

How often do you think members of the clique or the tribe self-censor to appear a “true Scotsman” to others in that clique or tribe? (do you? you wouldn’t be alone…)

Every time that happens, that’s schismogenesis. Certainly, in the social media enabled, algorithm driven to promote extremism and highlight the worst of the other tribe (especially in areas that your tribe just “doesn’t do”) to reinforce your tribal allegiance through anger and disgust, those pressures are greater.

But, I would wager, even in the widening gyre, most in the tribes are really far closer to each other than they think. If they dared to step outside the “don’ts” that social media and the “no true [ ] would…” blasts that limit them now.

Your thoughts?

–Fair warning, the next link is very religious in nature (it’s a sermon, in fact), but even if you are not religious, stay for the allegory of the mismanaged Portland restaurant and what to really do about it (starts ~minute 28, but the entire thing is good context): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TeqbqD8oPg

It applies to the bonfire of the credibilities, and the possibilities that previous pandemics have catalyzed on their other side, such as the societal changes leading into the Renaissance that came in the aftermath of the Black Death.

—The chances of catching coronavirus are equivalent to the Buckeye readers thinking they would be safe until this part of the update.

–The chances of catching ebola are equivalent to the chances they were actually safe until this part.

So we’ll be nice here. We’ll end with a link to an amazing version of an old song of joy, one that has brought hope to many. Stick around through the end, because it really builds as it goes.

<Paladin>