So there was no planned update but events this week are reaching an inflection point.  Since I am on my iPhone, this will be short.

—Geographic spread to more and more countries is highly concerning, especially given China is largely shut down with extensive travel restrictions globally restricting Chinese visas and flights.

—Japan botched the quarantine of the cruise ship.  They are at high risk for a cluster of cases to appear.

—Singapore is having a distressingly high percentage of cases with no Chinese travel this week, suggesting continuous transmission within Singapore.

—This includes another “super spreader” event in Singapore.  I also very much doubt the UK citizen at that conference in Singapore we mentioned was the only one to be infected.  God only knows where the other conference attendees have gone since or if they are being tracked for coronavirus.

—The Tokyo marathon was cancelled; a SE Asian MMA event will be televised only—no live audience; South Korea imposed quarantine restrictions and work at home requirements.

—Facebook has basically cancelled conference attendance for its employees.

—At least Singapore, Japan and South Korea are at high risk for an explosion of cases in the next couple weeks.  Iran troubles me too.

—China is absolutely lying about numbers.  If they do go back to work now, as the party chooses to risk viral blowout vs overthrow due to economic collapse, they will very likely get viral blowout.  And hopefully overthrow anyways, which they already richly deserve.

—The case fatality rate ex China appears on the lower end of estimates.

—However, it is MUCH higher than the flu.  Flu is typically 0.2% mortality.  This is closer to 1%.

—No reports on testing flu negative cases in the US.  Does not appear CDC has started this, although it is a good plan.  We also need a serologic test (for antibodies to the virus) to see how many people have already been exposed—may have been sick with this and not noticed, thinking it a cold, or not even sick at all.  Absent that, case fatality rate estimates are just estimates.  That serologic test does not yet exist to the best of my knowledge.

—US does not appear to have worrisome clusters—yet.  We did issue a travel advisory for Japan.  The risk now is that cases get critical enough in non-China countries that infected patients slip through before we shut flights down, similar to happened with China already.  California reported that it has 5,000 people under “voluntary quarantine” already—asked to stay home from work and report symptoms.

—While you are still about 27 times more likely to have something other than coronavirus in the US, even with worrisome history, chances are excellent there are at least a couple cases still out there circulating.  And that’s before the cruise ship folks got back.  The CDC flu negative survey testing will be -very- enlightening in this regard.

—Isolated reports that chloroquine, an antimalarial drug similar to the quinine in your tonic water, may help.  Some HIV antivirals are also being tested.  They might be useful if the coronavirus replication machinery is similar enough.  Way too early to say if any of these are truly effective.

—Masks are getting very hard to come by as manufacturers are prioritizing shipments to Asia (because obviously).

—YOU SHOULD GET MASKS NOW BEFORE THEY ARE TOTALLY UNAVAILABLE OR AT GOUGING PRICES.

—YOU DO -NOT- NEED TO WEAR THEM NOW.  There is a growing chance you will be glad you have them.

—STRONGLY CONSIDER A MONTH SUPPLY OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD, ANY MEDICATIONS (stock up now—supply disruptions are very likely), AND A PLAN FOR CLEAN WATER (just in case).  At worst, you can eat the food later.  Again, you may be glad you did this and limited your downside now.  Hopefully, unnecessary.  Growing chance it may be useful though—you may be indoors for a bit before the year is out.

—Cancellation insurance on any travel is a good idea right now.

—I personally would not be taking any cruises this year.  I tend to be cautious though.  Definitely get cancellation insurance on any cruises you may still be planning.

—Your chances of catching coronavirus are still lottery level.  They are getting -much- better though.

<Paladin>