As reminders…

Alpha–Variant first identified in the UK

Beta–Variant first identified in South Africa

Gamma–Variant first identified in Brazil

Delta–Variant first identified in India

Omicron–Variant first identified in South Africa

Updating the chart above:

Ancestral: B.1.1.529 Omicron (and cousins)

Transmissibility: All the +

Immune Evasiveness: All the +

Vaccine Effectiveness: Check (for hospitalization)

Also as a reminder:

Monkeypox

–I’ve seen the headlines, but don’t have too much to add at the moment. In Europe, and the UK especially, there are a handful of cases of monkeypox (clinical significance covered before here) with no known contact with a monkey, suggesting that human to human contact is happening. Since this is rare in monkeypox, this has caught some attention. There are also new cases being investigated in the US. But again, the most likely cause is close contact with an infected monkey, or close contact with an obviously infected human. Your chances of catching monkeypox, unless you are engaging in monkey business or in the monkey business, are very, very remote.

Coronavirus:

–Yep, still going…

–Going around the horn, cases in China are finally starting to level, and Shanghai is beginning to slooooowly reopen. Look for new spikes in the price of oil soon as the Chinese economy plays catch up. It’s been about 6-7 weeks of lockdown in Shanghai, also known as just about the span for a coronavirus wave to run its natural course, and calling into question the wisdom and effectiveness of the CCP’s Zero COVID lockdown policy.

Again.

But those are questions for Xi and company to answer, and I am sure they will be asked by more and more Chinese citizens. Especially as China reportedly moves to restrict travel from China to other countries that are more open, lest their citizens find out how other countries have successfully handled COVID.

In the US, you have an omicron-cousin wave that is building steam. A big jump to omicron level infection is possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Although these cousins do seem to get past the vaccine and are even more infectious than omicron, there hasn’t been quite the same sudden lift off, and those who caught and recovered from omicron very likely have some protection from its cousins. Hospitalization rates are rising slightly as function of numbers, but their velocity is still well below previous waves, consistent with “more infectious, less severe” pandemic trends.

South Africa is similarly in a 5th wave looking at possible fall bellweathers. On the plus side though, South Africa seems to be getting hit by the same omicron cousins, and not an even newer variant. So how well South Africa’s current fall/winter experience will translate to the Northern Hemisphere is a little murkier, as the same variant(s) is the causing the same wave simultaneously right now. Hospitalizations remain on the low side in South Africa too.

You are probably looking at peak US cases from the omicron cousins in mid to late June and falling through July.

–In other coronavirus related news, vaccine efficacy in the 5-12 age range for preventing COVID symptoms was underwhelming according to a recent paper in JAMA. Chances of preventing symptoms dropped precipitously after little as 4 weeks post vaccination too. Now, in fairness, this was measured during the omicron wave when the vaccine in general was not doing much to stop symptomatic infection in anyone, but was still reducing chances of hospitalization, especially in at risk patients. So the key takeaway here is that for kids, too, the vaccine may not stop COVID symptoms or positive tests. What we don’t know is hospitalization impact (which is the only metric we really care about from a pandemic stand point) because the researchers didn’t look at that. Most likely because the chances ANY of the kids in this study, among the tens of thousands they looked at, were hospitalized with COVID is really tiny, absent serious underlying conditions.

–In other vaccine news, the CDC quietly put out a tool to help you decide if you should get a booster. To save you time, it pretty much follows the recommendations we have discussed here over and over. If you are over 50, or have serious underlying conditions making you more at risk, a second booster is probably worth it. The tool will recommend a first booster for everyone else (because of course–you can refer to our previous discussions on your own risk:benefit there, and personally, my antibody titers are still quite high thank you very much from my initial series). But it will tend to dissuade you from a second in many cases. Anyways, you can check it out here.

–On the socioeconomic front, just more and more slow moving disaster. Sri Lanka announced they were out of gas entirely this week, defaulted on foreign debts, and the government said it would need at least $75 million in additional credit just to import enough basic needs to get through the next week or so. Rumors of complete implosion of the country may, in fact, be true.

Sadly, they will probably merely be the first.

Had a reader send this, but had also seen it. The head of the Bank of England warned that there will be considerable food shortages (the exact phrase used was “apocalyptic”) this year from the Ukraine-Russia war, but as well as continued fall out in energy supplies, fertilizer supplies etc.

–In a related note, India has banned the export of wheat to ensure that it has enough to feed its own population, particularly after the crop was damaged during a recent serious heat wave across the country. India is a top 10 exporter of wheat, and this will exacerbate shortages elsewhere. Obviously.

–In the US, drought west of the Mississippi continues to be a major problem, with corn plantings significantly behind schedule across much of the corn belt.

Target announced this week that it expects $1 billion (with a “b”) in additional freight cost due to the continued high price of diesel. Other similarly sized retailers have said similar. Diesel stocks have never been lower in the US at this point in the year, and in fact, drawdown of oil and natural gas products of all kinds continues to be negative versus supply across the country.

A major energy reliability regulator for North America warned that a huge swath of the US and part of Canada is elevated to high risk of black outs during the summer. You can read their report directly here, coverage of it here, and this is the map from the NERC’s report in the first link:

The midwest portions are at high risk due to a return to pre-pandemic levels of demand, while production has actually fallen in that region, and a shift in sources towards more wind generation in particular leaves the region vulnerable to summer black outs on peak demand days if the wind isn’t brisk. Further, a tornado last December damaged a major transmission line that moves thousands of megawatts between the midwest and that red portion of Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas down below, and that is expected to still be under repair at the start of summer.

–In short, risks of cascading disruption becoming cascading failure are growing. Not high, but definitely not zero either.

–This week’s think piece comes from Ben Hunt. Worth a read and ponder:  https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-macguffin-part-1/?wppb_cpm_redirect=yes

–Finally, you likely heard or saw about the discovery of the doorway on Mars, captured in the following image from Curiosity rover on 7 May:

Now, I know what you’re thinking, Hypothetical Reader. “That is clearly made by something intelligent! That is obviously a doorway hewn into the Martian rock! Clearly, there is life, intelligent, tool making life on Mars!”

“It’s….. proof….. Unquestionable, definitive proof! It all makes sense now! The quiet disclosures that close encounters with unidentified aerial craft by the military have been happening for years, aircraft with no apparent propulsion system mankind knows and uses that can do maneuvers beyond anything we currently fly…. the announced hearings on those aircraft in the US House of Representatives coming up… and now… NASA releasing this image while Elon’s tweets and the Johnny Depp/Amber Heard trial are soaking up so much bandwidth….

…they’re real! Martians are real! Humanity is not alone!”

But some of you have probably noticed that the doorway is only three feet tall or so, so if they are aliens, they are short aliens. Which, possible. Mars is a different, colder, harsher environment with less gravity after all. So I know what some of you other Hypothetical Readers are thinking…

“It all makes sense… Space Force. Billionaires trying to put human colonies on Mars, calling it an existential necessity for humankind to take to the stars and colonize other planets. And now a three foot rough carved door in the side of a Martian mountain…. There can be only one explanation…

The Army of the Bioterrorist Monkeys. That doorway is the right size for one of their lairs. And they are already on Mars…

…and monkeys in -space suits- should have been the t-shirt design!  Son of a…“

What do NASA and other scientists think though? Well, here is Livescience.com with more detailed image analysis that shows this formation is probably naturally occurring, most likely from wind erosion pushing a big chunk of rock off of this particular outcropping.

So this week, your chances of catching coronavirus in most places in the world are equivalent to the chances that of all those explanations above, there can be only one, true answer. I’m not saying it’s aliens, but….

<Paladin>