This will be super short–busy week.

Ebola–

No new cases in Guinea, so Guinea is now back on the clock counting down the 60 days since a new confirmed case before the WHO will call the outbreak officially over. Pre-publication reports of the data that shows the current outbreak in Guinea was reactivation from an Ebola Jane, as previously discussed, are available on the web, but there’s nothing really new in them.

Coronavirus–

–India is taking the brunt of the current action, with hospitals in many areas overwhelmed. As we have been repeating, when that happens, you’re going to have a bad time in terms of overall mortality. You have undoubtedly seen reports to that effect. Just remember, tabloids are going to tabloid–a reader sent along an observation that the New York Post was reusing images from an industrial disaster in India a year ago in an article stressing just how dire the situation in India had become. Hyperbole aside, India does have a problem at the moment. That’s a problem for the rest of the world too, as India is a key manufacturer of the COVID vaccines. They have started to keep more of them in country, and other nations are sending emergency supplies to try to halt the wave there. The US, for instance, is sending $100 million of raw vaccine supplies (NOT vaccine doses though) and oxygen to India.

–Around the rest of the horn, numbers are largely tracking in a good direction.

–That includes Michigan, which was getting some scare headline attention this week–“Most of the New Cases in Michigan in Younger Patients.” Considering they were only just recently eligible for the vaccine, and thus less likely to be vaccinated, that shift in age is actually expected. It’s part of the vaccine effectiveness data we discussed just last week, in fact. The media remains undefeated at presenting information without relevant context…

–In the US, at least 50% of the population has received at least one dose of the vaccine. Thus, it is unsurprising that the US is on track for the CDC’s earlier projections, and still on track to be medically over by July or so. The next two months should show an accelerating downtrend as the US should be pretty close to herd immunity via vaccination and natural infection.

–So you have also probably noticed the “millions of Americans skipping the second dose!” headlines. First, if you receive the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, those are two dose vaccines, and should of course and absolutely always be used according to their label, which specifies that you should receive both doses at the stated time interval for maximal efficacy and to be using the vaccines as intended. And always in consultation with, and supervision by, your healthcare professional.

Thank you for your understanding.

–Now, some of you who have been reading these updates closely will say that some of the vaccine types, like the AZ or J&J vaccines, are one dose only. Presumably, the media is not counting those vaccines, but… well… let’s just consider their COVID coverage in general over the course of the pandemic and give them the appropriate benefit of the doubt. Some even closer readers will also point to the studies we linked that showed that Pfizer/Moderna efficacy after just a single dose is close to that published for the AZ and J&J vaccines, although it does go higher for the mRNA vaccines with that second dose. Some of you will even say that we have linked publications in previous updates here, and similar peer reviewed publications are available on the web in a search, that show a robust antibody response in healthcare professionals and others who were previously infected by COVID (PCR positive) and recovered after just a single shot of the vaccine, suggesting that only one dose (effectively a booster) might be enough in those recovered from PCR positive COVID. Some of the readership will undoubtedly point to the apparent success of the United Kingdom’s explicit strategy of getting at least one dose on board as many people as possible to vaccinate the most, and quickly. And some of you, scallywags and ne’er do wells, no doubt (you are my readership after all), will start telling me that you “are old enough to remember when” the media was running headlines like this. Along with major scientific publications, like this.

For my part, I would say that if you have any questions on those, you should talk to your healthcare professional. The last two links, and last one in particular, do a good job of explaining the broader risks and benefits.

–And of course, to reiterate, you should only use an approved medication according to its label and in consultation with, and supervision by, your healthcare professional. If that label calls for two shots, that is because the data show maximum efficacy with that dose, and you will likely get the most benefit from getting two doses of those vaccines whose label indicates that. Again, thank you for your understanding.

–One social point of consideration though. If you received a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, and only got one dose of it, and then attempt to travel to a country requiring vaccination for entry, it is a fair and open question as to whether your hosts will consider that vaccinated enough for entry. Something to think about. Especially as the EU has announced it will welcome vaccinated travelers from the US this summer.

–In other news, the CDC has issued the following guidance for social distancing and mask use with participation in various activities:

It’s a start.

–Lastly on the socio-economic aspects… you have undoubtedly noticed that supply chain chokepoints linger, as countries are variously open, closed, re-opening etc. That makes inventory of various products a little uncertain week to week. Basic construction material prices have been getting meme’d a lot, but inflation is showing up everywhere. Places in the world sensitive to the price of food may start getting a bit chippy if the current food price inflation (which is across all major categories of foodstuffs) continues:

Deus impeditio esuritori nullus.

–Your chances of catching Ebola this week are equivalent to the chances you made half a million dollars off a meme picture taken of you when you were 5.

–Your chances of catching coronavirus this week are equivalent to the chances that will buy a 2×4 at Lowe’s right now. A 2×4.

<Paladin>