The order in the subject line is deliberate.

First, mea culpa.  I fucked up.  I thought, given China’s speed in identifying the novel coronavirus, this meant they were taking rapid and appropriate steps and being forthcoming about an issue of possibly international health significance.  The lesson, as always, is never, ever, ever trust anything official from China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTF2j0OWUi8

Sadly, I am Flounder in that clip.

So, where do we stand on the novel coronavirus now that freakout headlines are starting and its being blamed for moves in the global stock markets?

At present, best information puts us somewhere north of 600 cases.  Keep in mind, I don’t trust any numbers of any kind out of China at this point.  So far, there are only 17 reported deaths–all in China.  Of those deaths, the vast majority were -exactly- who would expect to run into issues with the respiratory infection caused by a novel coronavirus:  the very elderly (80+ years old) and those with pre-existing serious medical conditions, especially respiratory conditions.  But again, caveat is this is what China is saying.
It is worth mentioning, especially for closer estimates of the -true- mortality given the unreliability of China at the moment, NONE of the 13 patients with confirmed novel coronavirus outside of China (travelers from China to Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Singapore and the USA) have died.  These are all patients healthy enough to travel (like everyone on this list).  Several have already been treated and released.  At present, ASSUMING that China’s current data is accurate, the mortality rate is about what you would expect for an average/above average flu season, and affecting the same demographic. 

That said, the virus is already international and capable of human to human transmission.  China likely has a LOT more cases.  The WHO is taking China’s numbers at face value, and epidemiological modeling estimates the current number of total infected at a median of ~4,000, with a 95% Confidence Interval that extends up to ~9,000.  In fact, China has full on, zombie movie quarantined Wuhan, the source of the outbreak–that city is larger than New York.  And reports of quarantines of several other smaller cities coupled with severe travel restrictions to minimize the spread of the virus.  That makes me concerned that human to human transmission is juuuuuust a little easier than initial reports.  We will have a better idea, frankly, in the next week.  If human to human transmission is pretty easy, those couple patients here and there in other countries will start to grow. 

I want to re-iterate that, because I am already seeing “SPANISH FLU PANDEMIC” contagiousness comparisons.  We have NO quality data, as far as I am concerned, on how easily this is spread right now.  This presents clinically, when severe enough to attract medical attention, VERY similar to flu.  Assuming it is cold/flu level contagious is reasonable.  Where it falls on the spectrum exactly will be best suggested by the spread of cases from known exposures OUTSIDE China. 

Also, keep in mind the SARS virus, another coronavirus.  SARS was -really- easy to transmit person to person, which made it a problem.  But, the majority of patients with SARS didn’t even notice they had it and never sought treatment to be officially diagnosed–most SARS cases look like a cold.  SARS was, by and large, only a problem if you were very old or had pre-existing medical conditions, where it tended to be an unusually large problem.  Medical staff tended to get it at a high rate too.  So far, no reports of infection of medical staff treating any patients outside China, but many, if not most, may still be in the incubation phase.  Give it a week; we’ll see where we are.

But everybody loves them a good pandemic scare, especially the news, which can use scare headlines to keep you watching.  It’s good for their business.  That’s what they -really- care about.

Early indications in countries outside of China do not have me terribly worried.  In fact, I am watching flu vaccine manufacturers post 20-40% gains on the stock market this week with considerable humor.  If you -ever- thought the market was efficient, there’s your proof–flu vaccines will do, speaking medically, exactly dick for a coronavirus.  Yet, you could have absolutely made money expecting the average idiot on the street to to jump on those if you had a good enough sense of what the average idiot was likely to do.  Reminds me of that old B-school contest, where you guess a number halfway between 0-100 — but you win by having the guess that is 1/2 of the -average- guess. (the winning guess is often 12.5 or 6.25, because the clever ones figure everyone else will figure that half of 50 is 25 and guess “25” to make it the average–you just have to be one step farther than the average bear).

Sadly, I was not ahead of the idiots jumping on flu vaccine stocks.  Again, I am clearly Flounder in that clip…

So, do not panic despite the panic headlines.  There are lots of travelers from China.  Some have brought this virus with them.  It’s not clear yet just how contagious this virus is, but it does have at least some contagiousness to it.  Mortality is so far close to the flu, but NO ONE with a confirmed case outside of China has died. 

You do NOT need to run to Amazon right now to buy and wear a hospital mask.

Mostly because I have already bought them all, and you should contact me for a friends and family discount on my gouging : )  Just kidding.  I have not.  I have no immediate plans to do so.  I’m not yet convinced the threat is THAT severe.  I will be watching the patients -outside of China- most closely for reliable indicators of level of concern that I should actually have.
Your chances of catching the novel coronavirus are far worse than your chances of hitting the Powerball this weekend at the moment.  Unless you are in China.  Or have been to Wuhan recently.

In Ebola news, 15 new cases in the last week, all from known transmission chains.  While follow up tracing remains inadequate, that is reassuring, but we still want to see numbers of new cases go down and several weeks in a row where any new cases come from known contact chains to finally wind this sucker down.  Avoiding more Ebola Jane pop ups would be nice too.  There is still no additional word on the “were they vaccinated” sisters, which isn’t surprising, but is nonetheless annoying because they are informative on long term vaccination success. 

Your chances of catching Ebola are even lower than your chances of catching the novel coronavirus.

<Paladin>